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US market portrait 2016 week 36

US large cap market returns. read more...

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Advice for First-Year College Students

It's that time of year... here's a blog post from several years ago regarding advice for first-year college students.  Starting College: Words of Advice1. Pick your faculty, not just your courses. Ten...

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Substance Abuse Treatment Centers and Local Crime -- by Samuel R. Bondurant,...

In this paper we estimate the effects of expanding access to substance-abuse treatment on local crime. We do so using an identification strategy that leverages variation driven by...

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The Welfare Cost of Retirement Uncertainty -- by Frank N. Caliendo, Maria...

Uncertainty about the timing of retirement is a major financial risk with implications for decision making and welfare over the life cycle. Our conservative estimates of the standard deviation of the...

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Informal Labor and the Efficiency Cost of Social Programs: Evidence from the...

It is widely believed that the presence of a large informal sector increases the efficiency cost of social programs - transfer and social insurance programs - in developing countries. We evaluate such...

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Women Working Longer: Facts and Some Explanations -- by Claudia Goldin,...

American women are working more, through their sixties and even into their seventies. Their increased participation at older ages started in the late 1980s before the turnaround in older men's labor...

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Older Women's Labor Market Attachment, Retirement Planning, and Household...

The goal of this paper is to ascertain whether older women's current and anticipated future labor force patterns have changed over time, and if so, to evaluate the factors associated with longer work...

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Can Myopic Loss Aversion Explain the Equity Premium Puzzle? Evidence from a...

Behavioral economists have recently put forth a theoretical explanation for the equity premium puzzle based on combining myopia and loss aversion. Complementing the behavioral theory is evidence from...

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Labour Market Regulations and Capital Intensity -- by Gilbert Cette, Jimmy...

On the basis of a country*industry unbalanced panel data sample for 14 OECD countries and 18 industries covering the years 1988 to 2007, this study proposes an econometric investigation of the effects...

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Certified Random: A New Order for Co-Authorship -- by Debraj Ray, Arthur Robson

In economics, alphabetical name order is the baseline norm for joint publications. A growing literature suggests, however, that alphabetical order confers uneven benefits on the first author. This...

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Migration as a Test of the Happiness Set Point Hypothesis: Evidence from...

Strong versions of the set point hypothesis argue that subjective well-being measures reflect each individual's own personality and that deviations from that set point will tend to be short-lived,...

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Hospital Network Competition and Adverse Selection: Evidence from the...

Health insurers increasingly compete on their covered networks of medical providers. Using data from Massachusetts' pioneer insurance exchange, I find substantial adverse selection against plans...

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Optimal Monetary Policy in a Collateralized Economy -- by Gary Gorton, Ping He

In the last forty or so years the U.S. financial system has morphed from a mostly insured retail deposit-based system into a system with significant amounts of wholesale short-term debt that relies on...

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Strategic Patient Discharge: The Case of Long-Term Care Hospitals -- by Paul...

Medicare's prospective payment system for long-term acute-care hospitals (LTCHs) gives providers modest reimbursements for short patient stays before jumping discontinuously to a large lump-sum payment...

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Executive Lawyers: Gatekeepers or Strategic Officers? -- by Adair Morse, Wei...

Lawyers now serve as executives in 44% of corporations. Although endowed with gatekeeping responsibilities, executive lawyers face increasing pressure to use time on strategic efforts. In a lawyer...

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Seeding the S-Curve? The Role of Early Adopters in Diffusion -- by Christian...

In October 2014, all 4,494 undergraduates at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology were given access to Bitcoin, a decentralized digital currency. As a unique feature of the experiment, students...

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Understanding and Misunderstanding Randomized Controlled Trials -- by Angus...

The use of RCTs is spreading in economics. They are seen as desirable for discovery and for generating evidence for policy. Yet some of the enthusiasm for RCTs comes from misunderstandings: that...

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Financial Safety Nets -- by Julien Bengui, Javier Bianchi, Louphou Coulibaly

In this paper, we study the optimal design of financial safety nets under limited private credit. We ask when it is optimal to restrict ex ante the set of investors that can receive public liquidity...

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Misreporting Trade: Tariff Evasion, Corruption, and Auditing Standards -- by...

In official international trade statistics, annual commerce between every pair of countries is reported twice: once by the importing country and once by the exporter. These double reports provide an...

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Sovereign Debt Portfolios, Bond Risks, and the Credibility of Monetary Policy...

Nominal debt provides consumption-smoothing benefits if it can be inflated away during recessions. However, we document empirically that countries with more countercyclical inflation, where nominal...

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